“The Ducks” come rolling into Lubbock! Tech tries to rebound from disaster, and the bright West Texas lights may be the Red Raiders best chance at an upset.
By Taylor Hampton
Coffee drinkers, sugar addicts and consumers of adult beverages know that the buzz only lasts so long. The Texas Tech football program was “higher than a kite” this offseason. Part of it was legitimate based off solid performances over the last couple of months of last season, part of it was because we have a coach who exudes confidence from the moment he wakes up until the cameras are turned off, and maybe beyond. He is the” energizer bunny”. On Saturday night, the coffee crash started somewhere around the third quarter when it became apparent Tech wasn’t going to create any separation in Laramie against a tough, but inferior opponent. We all know how it ended.
On the West Coast, Oregon absolutely demolished a lesser Portland State team. Tech’s loss in Laramie was a surprise, Oregon’s win was not. However, the margin turned heads. Oregon put up 729 yards of total offense. They were nearly perfectly balanced with 381 yards passing and 348 yards on the ground. “The Ducks” scored 81 points. The last time a team scored more than that was when TCU routed Tech in Fort Worth during the mostly dark days of Kliff Kingsbury’s tenure as Tech’s head coach. Oregon is talented, they are more talented than Tech. However, how much do we really know about them? Portland State is a terrible team. They were blown out last year by Montana 53 to 16 and lost to Sacramento State 45 to 17. No offense to those programs:they are good teams for their level of competition, but neither compares to Texas Tech at home, especially under the lights and especially after an embarrassing opener against a non-power five opponent.
We all know Tech will have their hands full Saturday night. What exactly are we facing against Oregon?
Offense
This author believes it all starts up front. Oregon has a big and talented offensive line. Jackson Powers-Johnson (what a name for a lineman, center), Marcus Harper (left guard), Steven Jones (right guard), Josh Conerly (left tackle) and Ajani Cornelius (right tackle) should be the five starters. They are good, way better than Wyoming, who maybe had only one player even approaching their talent level. Bucky Irving and Jordan James rushed for over two hundred yards combined last week against Portland State. That’s the good news! They have other talented running backs. They have depth; Dante Dowdell and Jayden Limar both had a touchdown and over 50 yards rushing.
If Tyler Shough plays like he did Saturday night, his NFL draft grade may continue to slip, but Oregon’s Bo Nix played like an NFL player in mid-season form last Saturday. He threw for 23/27 with three touchdown passes. His opponent was Portland State, but not bad for a guy who didn’t even play the entire game. He is fantastic and a major threat, we all know that. He has a talented cast of characters to connect with in the passing game including, but not excluded to tight end Terrance Ferguson, Tez Johnson, Traeshon Holden and Gary Bryant. They all put up solid numbers last Saturday. Again, a common theme, they will be a challenge for Tech.
Defense
Like many teams in college football, Oregon experienced massive turnover through the transfer portal, especially on defense. South Carolina transfer Jordan Burch should give Tech’s offensive line fits, particularly if they don’t “follow through with their blocks” as Kittley described on Monday during his weekly press conference. Brandon Dorlus is an All- Pac 12 defensive lineman. That’s a problem. Look for solid production from Casey Rogers, Popo Aumavae and Taki Tamiami as well. Like pretty much every position group with Oregon, they are good, talented and deep.
Remarkably, Oregon did not have any interceptions last week in their 81-7 route of Portland State. Don’t be fooled, their secondary is good and is stocked with transfers from major programs from across the country. I haven’t checked in on Nike’s stock lately, but I imagine the Oregon faithful may keep an eye on it from time to time. Bridges, Jackson (Alabama transfer), Reed (Colorado transfer-was Deion too much for him?), Williams (Fresno State transfer) and Johnson (from Ole Miss) will be manning the Oregon secondary. Most of them had solid production last week, especially Johnson, who had a tackle for a loss. Some of them didn’t do much, but that probably doesn’t tell us the whole story. Again, they played Portland State. Jeffrey Bassa, Mase Fun are great linebackers. Iowa transfer Justin Jacobs is good inside. Couple of those guys didn’t show up on the stat sheet Saturday, but again they were playing Portland State in a blowout, and I am sure they wanted to give their younger guys and backups a chance to play. Also, this author hasn’t reviewed the most up to date injury report because Oregon played a bad team and the reasons for low production or lack of playing time could be related to that, playing a bad team. Bottom line Oregon has a good defense.
Special Teams
Oregon was not great on special teams last season, ranking close to the bottom of the Pac-12 in most statistics. Joe Lorig was hired as special teams coach in January. On Saturday, they made a lot of extra points. We also know their punter (Ross James), who also wasn’t very active for obvious reasons, made one punt for 58 yards. Their starting kicker made one 41-yard field goal and six extra points. Their backup kicker, Grant Meadors, made four extra points. Tez Johnson returned a few punts with a 16 yard long. Bottom line, this was a weak spot last season and because of their dominant win Saturday night, we don’t know much about this unit.
Prediction
Wyoming got the win Saturday night in Laramie. It was a thriller for their team and their fan base. However, they also managed to kick the ant pile of “Red Raider Nation”. Fans, donors, coaches and most all players are pissed off, big time. If this was Tarleton State or even one of the projected bottom feeders in the Big XII coming to town, Tech might blow even a decent team out. However, Oregon is no bottom feeder. They are a ranked opponent with enormous talent on offense, defense and especially quarterback. I can’t remember the last time Tech did well against a dual threat quarterback.
Kittley mentioned earlier this week that he had to be much more aggressive with his play calling. I sincerely hope he intends to be just as aggressive in the running game as he is with the passing game. I also sincerely hope that Tech’s offensive line learned to “follow through” with their blocks during subsequent practices. This isn’t youth football; they should know how to do that by now. Tech rushed for only 93 yards against Wyoming last Saturday night. I think they will need at least 150 yards on the ground to pull an upset Saturday night in Lubbock.
Over the summer, an Oregon podcaster mentioned his big fear about this game in Lubbock was that Tyler Shough would throw for 3 touchdowns, 350 yards and have one interception or less. Tech’s formula for winning Saturday night would need to include that plus 150 yards on the ground from two talented Tech running backs who couldn’t get going last Saturday night in Laramie.
This Saturday night, under the lights, when Tech loses this game 35-21, we will see flashes of the team that we dreamed about all off season. We will also see an intense home crowd because Tech fans have not given up on the season. There are some outliers, but this is a realistic and passionate fan base. While Oregon should overwhelm us with talent, even with a significant home field advantage, it would be foolish for anyone to count us out. For those of us who lived through the upset of ranked Texas A&M in 1999, ranked UT in 2002, ranked OU in 2007 and for those of us who watched the Tech offense via Michael Crabtree and Graham Harrell pull off the impossible against Texas in 2008, all at home, we know a win Saturday night is not impossible. Even with a loss Saturday night, the pride of West Texas football will live on. The dream of creating a powerhouse on the South Plains is still alive, it might not be this season, but it is still alive. Tech is likely to bounce back after an 0-2 start and achieve bowl eligibility and respectability going forward. For Joey McGuire, this group of players and a rabid Tech fan base, it won’t be satisfying. However, in the years to come, the future is promising. In the words of Gandhi, “To lose patience is to lose the battle”.